Mekele: Reports of troop movements and sporadic clashes in northern Ethiopia have emerged in recent months, feeding concern that a fragile calm could soon collapse. The region is still reeling from the brutal two-year civil war between the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) and federal government forces—a conflict that claimed an estimated 600,000 lives before it ended with the Pretoria peace agreement in November 2022.
According to Deutsche Welle, during that war, Eritrean troops supported Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's campaign against the TPLF. Critics warned at the time that peace would remain fragile without Eritrea at the negotiating table. President Isaias Afwerki, who has ruled Eritrea for decades, was notably absent from the talks in Pretoria, South Africa's administrative capital.
Following the split, General Tadesse Werede, former commander of the defeated Tigray Defense Forces (TDF), was appointed head of the Tigray interim government in Mekelle. He has urged caution against misinformation and vowed, "There will be no war and no provocation from Tigray's side." On the other side of the divide is TPLF chairman Debretsion Gebremichael, who has been accused of cooperating with Eritrea—a claim he strongly denies. Debretsion has called for a political resolution grounded in the Pretoria agreement: "We urge the international community to pressure the Ethiopian government, its agents, and allies to refrain from preparing for war."
Despite these reassurances, fear is spreading among civilians in the region. A resident of Mekele reported that people are withdrawing money from banks and stockpiling essentials like oil and teff (an Ethiopian cereal), expressing a desire for both TPLF factions to use their influence to work with the central government to resolve the crisis and prevent war.
Eritrea's interest in a fragmented Ethiopia has been highlighted by Gerrit Kurtz, Horn of Africa expert at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP), who mentions that proxy conflicts are a real possibility. "Eritrea benefits when Ethiopia is weakened—when it's internally fragmented and beset by local conflicts," Kurtz told DW.
Observers have noted that Eritrea has trained armed groups inside Ethiopia, including the Fano militia in the Amhara region. In March, Fano fighters clashed with Ethiopian federal troops in a two-day battle that, according to Addis Ababa, left more than 300 militia members dead.
The complex history between Eritrea and Ethiopia dates back to colonial times and continued through Eritrea's decades-long independence struggle, which ended in 1993. Since then, Eritrea has become one of the world's most repressive and isolated regimes under Isaias Afwerki, with a UN arms embargo imposed in 2010.
According to a new report by the US-based watchdog group The Sentry, Eritrea has used its involvement in the Tigray conflict to significantly strengthen its position. Charles Cater, lead investigator for The Sentry, noted two clear patterns: systematic looting of Tigray during the war and illicit trade, including smuggling gold, sesame, cultural artifacts, and even people from Tigray. The foreign currency generated is believed to fund Eritrea's ongoing operations in Ethiopia.
A pivotal moment came in 2018 with the Ethiopia-Eritrea peace agreement, which ended years of hostility and lifted the UN arms embargo against Eritrea. However, Eritrean Information Minister Yemane Ghebremeskel dismissed The Sentry's report as a "fabricated narrative" meant to scapegoat Eritrea.