Cape town: Parts of South Africa are expected to experience significant rainfall during the winter and early spring seasons, as highlighted in the latest seasonal forecast by the South African Weather Service (SAWS). The Seasonal Climate Watch report, covering the period from June to October 2026, indicates that the eastern coastal areas are likely to receive above-normal rainfall, while below-normal rainfall is anticipated for the south-western and southern regions.
According to South African Government News Agency, the weather service predicts that minimum and maximum temperatures will generally be above-normal across most parts of the country during the winter season. This weather pattern is attributed to the El Ni±o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which is currently in a neutral state but is expected to rapidly transition towards an El Ni±o state in the coming month, continuing to strengthen until at least the end of the 2026/27 summer season.
The forecasted above-normal rainfall in the eastern coastal areas during winter and early spring is expected to enhance surface runoff into dams and reservoirs, significantly increasing water storage capacity and availability for household, industrial, and agricultural uses. However, this increased rainfall could also lead to flash floods and overwhelm stormwater and sewage systems, particularly in flood-prone areas.
Conversely, the south-western and southern coastal areas are likely to experience below-normal rainfall, which, combined with above-normal temperatures, may exacerbate water scarcity issues. These conditions could increase water loss and put additional pressure on water-stressed regions.
The seasonal forecast also suggests potential health implications due to rainfall variability and above-normal temperatures across South Africa. In the eastern coastal areas, increased rainfall may lead to localized flooding, poor drainage, and heightened risks of waterborne diseases. In contrast, dry conditions in the south-western and southern regions could impact local water availability and sanitation.
The above-normal temperatures predicted for most parts of the country could lead to heat-related health risks, especially affecting vulnerable groups such as children, the elderly, outdoor workers, and those with chronic illnesses. Additionally, warmer conditions may increase ultraviolet exposure during clear-sky periods, posing risks of sunburn and long-term skin damage.