Russia-Ukraine Conflict Puts Fragile Global Trade Recovery At Risk – WTO

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Prospects for the global economy have darkened since the outbreak of war in Ukraine on February 24, prompting the World Trade Organisation (WTO) economists to reassess their projections for world trade over the next two years. The organization now expects merchandise trade volume growth of 3.0% in 2022—down from its previous forecast of 4.7%—and 3.4% in 2023, but these estimates are less certain than usual due to the fluid nature of the conflict (Table 1). The most immediate economic impact of the crisis has been a sharp rise in commodity prices. Despite their small shares in world trade and o…

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