Johannesburg: The South African Weather Service (SAWS) forecast indicates that warmer conditions are expected in most parts of the country in the late autumn and winter, while significant rainfall is expected mainly over the southern and eastern coastal parts of South Africa. In its seasonal climate watch released on Tuesday, the weather service said the El Ni±o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently still in a neutral state.
According to South African Government News Agency, current predictions indicate a rapid shift over the next few months toward an El Ni±o state, with further strengthening expected through spring and into the start of the next summer season. SAWS advised caution, noting that the prediction skill of the ENSO phenomena can be limited during the winter months, and recommended keeping track of the forecasts during and after winter.
Above-normal rainfall is expected over the south-eastern and eastern coastal areas during late autumn, with these areas likely to continue receiving above-normal rainfall throughout the winter season. This is anticipated to bring positive impacts for crop and livestock production. However, the south-western part of the country, which typically receives significant winter rainfall, is expected to experience below-normal precipitation during this period. Decision-makers are encouraged to advise farmers in these regions to practice soil and water conservation, and engage in proper water harvesting and storage.
The weather service warned that the wetter-than-normal conditions may increase the risk of localized flooding and temporary waterlogging in vulnerable coastal and low-lying areas, particularly near rivers and flood-prone zones. Such conditions may elevate the potential for waterborne disease outbreaks and water-related injuries. Conversely, the south-western and southern coastal regions may face pressure on local water availability if dry conditions persist.
Minimum and maximum temperatures are expected to be above normal across most parts of the country during autumn and early winter. These warmer conditions may increase the risk of heat-related illnesses, particularly among vulnerable groups such as older persons, young children, and outdoor workers. Elevated temperatures may also heighten exposure to ultraviolet (UV) radiation, increasing the likelihood of sunburn and skin damage.
Communities are encouraged to remain alert to both heat- and rainfall-related health risks by staying hydrated and using sun protection. Health authorities and disaster management structures are advised to strengthen public health messaging and ensure the dissemination of heat-health information and flood alerts to support preparedness and response.
The forecast is updated monthly, and users are advised to monitor the updated forecasts as changes may occur, especially in longer lead-time forecasts. Farmers are advised to keep monitoring the weekly and monthly forecasts issued by SAWS, and to follow advisories from the Department of Agriculture, Land Reform and Rural Development.