According to Deutsche Welle, China, Brazil, and India are facing significant tariffs, with China potentially facing a 145% tariff if a deal with Trump is not reached. Brazil and India have been hit with a 50% tariff, partly due to India's purchase of discounted Russian oil. South Africa faces a 30% levy, and even new BRICS members like Egypt might see increased tariffs due to their participation in the group.
Trump, now in his second term, has warned of additional punitive measures against countries engaging in what he terms "anti-American policies," which includes aligning with BRICS. Critics argue that Trump's actions have unified a diverse group of countries with different objectives into a more cohesive bloc. Max Boot, a foreign policy analyst, stated in The Washington Post that Trump is "diminishing US power by perversely uniting America's friends with our enemies."
At the recent Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Tianjin, leaders from China, India, and Russia held trilateral talks for the first time in six years, signaling strengthened relations. The discussions focused on trade, energy, and regional security, laying the groundwork for enhanced BRICS coordination. The upcoming BRICS virtual summit will further address joint retaliation against US tariffs and consider expanding trade using local currencies.
India, in response to Trump's tariffs, has recalibrated its approach to China. There have been increased trade discussions, resumption of direct flights, and eased visa restrictions. China has agreed to supply India with rare earth minerals, crucial for India's clean energy and defense technologies. However, long-term improvement in Sino-Indian relations is uncertain due to India's suspicions regarding China's regional ambitions.
Other BRICS members are also strengthening ties with China. Brazil, with China as its largest trading partner, and Russia, conducting over 90% of its trade with China in yuan and rubles, highlight the deepening alignment. South Africa remains committed to its BRICS obligations, aiming to pursue its own path despite US pressure.
Despite growing from four to 10 members, BRICS faces challenges due to diverging national interests. However, trade among BRICS nations is increasing faster than with G7 countries, particularly in hydrocarbons. The Boston Consulting Group notes potential trade cooperation growth, with steps toward a BRICS-wide free trade agreement and increased foreign investment.
Intra-BRICS trade is poised for further growth, with political support for new initiatives like the BRICS grain exchange and local currency settlement mechanisms. Mihaela Papa from the Center for International Studies expects these developments to gain more urgency. Srivastava from the Global Trade Research Initiative predicts that while the dollar will remain dominant, systems in yuan, rupee, and ruble will gradually reduce its monopoly.