Johannesburg: With just over a week remaining in Eskom's Winter Outlook period, the power system remains well-positioned to maintain stability and reliably meet demand.
According to South African Government News Agency, the power utility announced that unplanned outages reached a notable milestone of 7,265MW, marking the first time the generation fleet has operated below the 8,000MW mark since 11 December 2020. This development underscores the structural progress in plant performance due to the ongoing implementation of the Generation Recovery Plan.
Eskom's sustained technical improvements have ensured a reliable power system, meeting more than 97% of electricity demand this winter and financial year to date. The power utility highlighted that South Africa has experienced no load shedding since 15 May 2025, with only 26 hours recorded between 1 April and 21 August 2025.
During the period between 15 and 21 August 2025, planned maintenance increased slightly, averaging 5,524MW. The Energy Availability Factor (EAF) fluctuated between 63% and 69%, with a month-to-date average rising to 64.98%. This upward trend reflects growing stability and improved reliability across the generation fleet, excluding Kusile Unit 6, which has been contributing 720MW to the national grid since 23 March 2025. The unit is expected to reach commercial operation by September 2025.
To further strengthen grid stability, Eskom plans to return a total of 4,850MW of generation capacity to service ahead of the evening peak on Monday, 25 August 2025, and throughout the coming week. Between 1 April and 21 August 2025, the Unplanned Capability Loss Factor (UCLF) decreased to 27.85%, indicating a week-on-week improvement of approximately 0.29%, although still about 2.0% higher than the 25.81% recorded during the same period last year.
The open-cycle gas turbine (OCGT) load factor decreased to 0.78% this week from 1.21% the previous week (8-14 August 2025), with OCGTs used strategically to address occasional system constraints during morning and evening peak periods. From 1 April to 21 August 2025, diesel spend remains within the allocated budget.
Eskom's Winter Outlook, published on 5 May 2025, remains valid, indicating that load shedding will not be necessary if unplanned outages stay below 13,000MW. If outages rise to 15,000MW, load shedding would be limited to a maximum of 21 days out of 153 days and restricted to Stage 2. Eskom is scheduled to announce its Summer Outlook in September 2025.